= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Decius comments on Reflection in Probabilistic Logic - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (171)
What would the world look like if I assigned "I assign this statement a probability less than 30%." a probability of 99%? What would the world look like if I assigned it a probability of 1%?
It means that you are rather confused about your function for assigning probabilities. In other words, you think you assign probabilities a different way from how you really do.
Suppose that my method of assigning probabilities about things that should not update on new evidence of any kind (invisible dragons) is to assign them either a very low probability (something which I almost always do), or a very high probability (something I very rarely do)?
This statement seems insane in that one should always update based only on one's current evaluation of it is (if you make the change "less than or equal to 30%", it has a stable solution)