jimrandomh comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 19, chapter 88-89 - Less Wrong

12 Post author: Vaniver 30 June 2013 01:22AM

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Comment author: jimrandomh 30 June 2013 04:47:15PM 7 points [-]

High-confidence prediction: Chapters 88-89 are Snape's doing.

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 30 June 2013 07:52:22PM 7 points [-]

What? Snape has been trying to set up Hermione as a heroine. What does he gain by luring her to her death?

Comment author: William_Quixote 30 June 2013 10:30:25PM *  12 points [-]

"Your books betrayed you, Potter," said Severus, still in that voice stretched tight by a million tons of pull. "They did not tell you the one thing you needed to know. You cannot learn from stories what it is like to lose the one you love. That is something you could never understand without feeling it yourself."

from http://www.fanfiction.net/s/5782108/27/Harry-Potter-and-the-Methods-of-Rationality

Note: I'm not sure Snape did it, my instinct is that this is the work of QQ. But Snape has reasons.

Comment author: gwern 30 June 2013 05:21:40PM 6 points [-]

How high confidence? http://predictionbook.com/predictions/19862

Comment author: jimrandomh 30 June 2013 06:15:06PM 1 point [-]

85%.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 01 July 2013 01:58:31AM *  7 points [-]

What do you want to bet on that? I'd assign your hypothesis an around 35% chance.

Comment author: jimrandomh 01 July 2013 05:39:29AM 7 points [-]

Ok, there's lots of room between our estimates (35% and 85%) to bet. I propose taking the arithmetic mean of our respective estimates, and betting at 3:2 odds; so I offer $12 against your $8. Offer valid until the next chapter is posted (Jul 1 7pm PST), void if not accepted (by replying with a comment) before then.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 01 July 2013 11:07:18PM 2 points [-]

Sounds good. Offer accepted. Also, this will either way give me a reason to show up to the next Boston meetup (assuming you are still in the area), which is good because I've been busy with other things.

Comment author: jimrandomh 02 July 2013 01:59:43AM 0 points [-]

Yep, still in the area. I haven't seen you in a while and it'll be good to catch up. (We might or might not get to actually settle the bet, depending on the chapter that's about to come out, of course; but come to the meetup this Sunday, and the megameetup the weekend after that, either way.)

Comment author: JoshuaZ 03 July 2013 06:57:39PM 1 point [-]

I unfortunately won't be able to make it this Sunday, but should be able to get to the megameetup.

Comment author: Will_Newsome 01 July 2013 01:24:11AM 7 points [-]

Someone please bet this man.

Comment author: jimrandomh 08 July 2013 04:00:43AM 2 points [-]

I have updated strongly downward on this prediction based on chapters 90-94, especially 94.

Comment author: ChrisHallquist 01 July 2013 05:58:22AM 2 points [-]

Surely you are joking?

If not, I would be very happy to make a bet on that.

Comment author: Alsadius 30 June 2013 08:31:23PM 1 point [-]

Explain your reasoning, please.

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