gwern comments on "Stupid" questions thread - Less Wrong

40 Post author: gothgirl420666 13 July 2013 02:42AM

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Comment author: gwern 21 July 2013 03:52:29AM 2 points [-]

Start with http://predictionbook.com/predictions/future

Predictions you aren't familiar with can be as useful as ones you are: you calibrate yourself under extreme uncertainty,and sometimes you can 'play the player' and make better predictions that way (works even with personal predictions by other people).