gwern comments on "Stupid" questions thread - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (850)
Start with http://predictionbook.com/predictions/future
Predictions you aren't familiar with can be as useful as ones you are: you calibrate yourself under extreme uncertainty,and sometimes you can 'play the player' and make better predictions that way (works even with personal predictions by other people).