I give them about 10 percent probability, and statements I've read from Eliezer and Luke cause me to believe they're below medium in self-assessment nowadays, or their definition of "medium" may be lower than you think. I support them to increase the chance.
That said, low chances of success aren't good for recruiting or motivation, and maximizing the probability requires as much effort and skill as possible to obtain.
Could you clarify your definition of success?
Your PredictionBook link says you reckon 10% probability of humanity still being around in ~100 years, but that's not the same thing as MIRI succeeding. Superhuman AI might turn out to be beyond human capability, so we could survive without MIRI achieving anything. Superhuman UFAI might be feasible, and MIRI might successfully stop it happening (in which case I'd say they succeeded), but FAI might be just too hard or too weak and we might then get wiped out by something else. (I agree that that seems low probability.)
In the past, people like Eliezer Yudkowsky (see 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5) have argued that MIRI has a medium probability of success. What is this probability estimate based on and how is success defined?
I've read standard MIRI literature (like "Evidence and Import" and "Five Theses"), but I may have missed something.
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(Meta: I don't think this deserves a discussion thread, but I posted this on the open thread and no-one responded, and I think it's important enough to merit a response.)