In the past, people like Eliezer Yudkowsky (see 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5) have argued that MIRI has a medium probability of success. What is this probability estimate based on and how is success defined?
I've read standard MIRI literature (like "Evidence and Import" and "Five Theses"), but I may have missed something.
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(Meta: I don't think this deserves a discussion thread, but I posted this on the open thread and no-one responded, and I think it's important enough to merit a response.)
If the year was 1960, which would you rather have?
At any given time there are many problems where solutions are very important, but the time isn't yet right to act on them, rather than on the capabilities to act on them, and also to deal with the individually unexpected problems that come along so regularly. Investment-driven and movement-building-driven discount rates are relevant even for existential risk.
GiveWell has grown in influence much faster than the x-risk community while working on global health, and are now in the process of investigating and pivoting towards higher leverage causes, with global catastrophic risk among the top three under consideration.
I'd rather have both, hence diverting some marginal resources to CFAR until it was launched, then switching back to MIRI. Is there a third thing that MIRI should divert marginal resources to right now?