Your reasons for focusing on math research at MIRI seem sound, but I take it you've noticed the warning sign of finding that what you already decided to do turns out to be a good idea for different reasons than you originally thought?
Yes, though these reasons are pretty similar to the reasons that made me switch positions on strategy back when I thought a focus on strategic research would be best for MIRI in 2013.
In the past, people like Eliezer Yudkowsky (see 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5) have argued that MIRI has a medium probability of success. What is this probability estimate based on and how is success defined?
I've read standard MIRI literature (like "Evidence and Import" and "Five Theses"), but I may have missed something.
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(Meta: I don't think this deserves a discussion thread, but I posted this on the open thread and no-one responded, and I think it's important enough to merit a response.)