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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Probability, knowledge, and meta-probability - Less Wrong
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It means that you figure out which causal models look more or less like what you observed.
More generally: There's a language of causal models which, we think, allows us to describe the actual universe, and many other universes besides. Some of these models are simpler than others. Any given sequence of experiences has some probability of being encountered in a given causal universe.