Lumifer comments on Probability, knowledge, and meta-probability - Less Wrong

38 Post author: David_Chapman 17 September 2013 12:02AM

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Comment author: Lumifer 18 September 2013 07:46:45PM 7 points [-]

What’s interesting is that, when you have to decide whether or not to gamble your first coin, the probability is exactly the same in the two cases (p=0.45 of a $2 payout). However, the rational course of action is different. What’s up with that?

That's pretty trivial.

The expected payout of putting a coin into a brown box is 0.90.

The expected payout of putting a coin into a green box is 0.90 plus valuable information about what kind of a green box it is. It is a *different payout*.