Less Wrong is a community blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality. Please visit our About page for more information.

bigjeff5 comments on Hindsight bias - Less Wrong

53 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 16 August 2007 09:58PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (25)

Sort By: Old

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: bigjeff5 29 January 2011 03:13:22AM 8 points [-]

If you note the study in the article, 56% of those told about the flood but warned to avoid hindsight bias stated the city was negligent, compared to 57% of those told about the flood but not warned to avoid the hindsight bias stated the city was negligent.

76% of the control group, without the benefit of hindsight, concluded the chances of failure were so remote the city could not be held negligent.

Just being aware that you have a potential hindsight bias is clearly meaningless if you have no method for removing the bias.

That said, the "failure of the imagination" sounds reasonable, but it's about as useful as my horoscope. I.e. it's not.