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albert comments on Hindsight bias - Less Wrong

53 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 16 August 2007 09:58PM

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Comment author: albert 06 November 2011 05:47:21PM *  -1 points [-]

In the first example of this article (Gurkha x British prediction), doesn't having the data of the outcome change your ex-ante estimate of what the probability was? Since it's a data point you now have and you can't erase it from your mind, it's rational to update your estimates no? The bias in my mind would be if you OVERLY adjust your probability distribution based on the outcome.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 06 November 2011 06:04:43PM 1 point [-]

No. That's exactly the problem. Updating after the fact for what might be likely in that sort of situation is ok. The problem as discussed in the article is that people are then convinced that it really should have been obvious to someone without that data point.