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beoShaffer comments on Hindsight bias - Less Wrong

44 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 16 August 2007 09:58PM

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Comment author: beoShaffer 04 June 2012 05:08:18PM 0 points [-]

I've seen several references to a latter study by Fischhoff called "Perceived informativeness of facts" which supposedly found that asking participants for arguments in support of the result that didn't happened can reduce hindsight bias. Unfortunately, since I can't access the original article I don't know how practical the effect is. Similarly, "Considering the Opposite: A Corrective Strategy for Social Judgment" indicates that asking people to consider how they would interpret different results found using the same methodology leads to less biased interpretations of studies. It also suggests that explaining explaining the details of how biased cognition happens is a more effective intervention that just telling people about the end result.