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Andrew2 comments on Hindsight bias - Less Wrong

53 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 16 August 2007 09:58PM

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Comment author: Andrew2 17 August 2007 03:58:47AM 1 point [-]


You write: "I'm sure they had some minor warnings of an al Qaeda plot, but they probably also had minor warnings of mafia activity, nuclear material for sale, and an invasion from Mars." I doubt they had credible warnings about an invasion from Mars. But, yeah, I'd like the FBI etc. to do their best to stop Al Quaeda plots, Mafia activity, and nuclear material for sale. I wonder if you're succumbing to a "bias-correction bias" where, because something _could_ be explainable by a bias, you assume it _is_. Groups of people do make mistakes, some of which could have been anticipated with better organization and planning. I have essentially no knowledge of the U.S. intelligence system, but I wouldn't let them off the hook just because a criticism could be simply hindsight bias. Sometimes hindsight is valid, right?