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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Hindsight bias - Less Wrong

53 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 16 August 2007 09:58PM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 17 August 2007 04:11:14AM 6 points [-]

The notion being that following up on all warnings of equal then-apparent severity, without benefit of hindsight, would have been a prohibitively expensive general policy. Especially since you would not have any information about "terrorism" being the pet problem of the '00s, rather than, say, an unpaid military officer launching a Russian ICBM, runaway greenhouse warming, a home biologist making superviruses, asteroids, unFriendly AI, etc.

It's all very well to talk about mistakes that could have been anticipated, yet somehow, they don't seem to be anticipated.