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JQuinton comments on Review of Scott Adams’ “How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big” - Less Wrong
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IIRC, there was pretty good advanced warning about 9/11, but the information was spread out among various organizations. So it depends on what one means by "advanced warning". I guess I'm unsatisfied with this quote since it seems to be a fully general counterargument for planning for any potential disaster.
I work for the government, so I've read and been briefed on a lot of horror stories about impending acquisition/engineering disasters that were vaguely "known", but were marched into full steam because the overall culture was unaware of biases like sunk cost; think of the Obamacare website. Let's just say that its rollout with all of its bugs was not a surprise to me.
As someone who is familiar with Adams' writing, when he talks about his law its pretty clear that he is using a definition of known that doesn't include either of the scenarios you mentioned. Unfortunately, this review doesn't include his standard examples and other clarifications.