savageorange comments on Even Odds - Less Wrong

35 Post author: Coscott 12 January 2014 07:24AM

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Comment author: savageorange 14 January 2014 10:12:54AM *  4 points [-]

Somebody replied with an explanation of how I was basically omitting the relativization of 'you' when considering what values to use.

That is, B should bet according to his confidence that he is correct, which in my case would be 70%..

  • B bets (.49 - .16) * 25 == $8.25
  • A bets (.36 - .09) * 25 == $6.75