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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on The Logical Fallacy of Generalization from Fictional Evidence - Less Wrong

39 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 16 October 2007 03:57AM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 17 October 2007 07:55:30AM 5 points [-]

Nic, the problem I'm referring to is not that stories are not generated from probability distributions, but that the stories don't explicitly describe probability distributions. If I want to give a rational analysis of the stock market, I have to be able to say "60% probability that the stock market goes up, 40% probability that it goes down." Rolling a 10-sided die, getting 7, and saying firmly "Now the stock market will go down!" doesn't cut it. If it's a story, though, I have to say either "The stock market went up" or "The stock market went down", one or the other.