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dthunt comments on Open thread, 18-24 August 2014 - Less Wrong
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Comments (79)
Well, your CI does change for the coin, if you observe strange artifacts of construction, or if the tosser has read Jaynes (who describes a way to cheat at coin tossing), or if the coin shows significant bias after lots of tries.
If you doubt this last bit, try a calibration app and look at one of your estimation buckets and ask yourself the same question: is my 70% bucket miscallibrated, or is this an effect of Tyche?
Your example constrains the evidence on the coin, by the convention that is attached to coin metaphors.
The less crappy response is that I like your attempt at illustrating the effects of prior distributions and general uncertainty, and that you should try another variation and see if it works better.
Retracted on the basis that I had not read the original thread and I almost certainly misunderstood the underlying question.
Sorry, not sure I got all that. As I mentioned in the previous conversation, I haven't gotten to any of the more advanced stuff yet (or really anything past beginner level). Could you maybe try to rephrase that so I could understand better? Thanks.