Error comments on 2014 Less Wrong Census/Survey - Call For Critiques/Questions - Less Wrong

18 Post author: Yvain 11 October 2014 06:39AM

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Comment author: Error 11 October 2014 02:34:13PM 1 point [-]

For estimated probabilities that are greater than 99%, or less than 1%, how many digits of accuracy do you wish the answer to be?

I would be quite surprised if any of us could justifiably estimate any of those questions to an accuracy better than the nearest 1%/epsilon offset.

Comment author: DataPacRat 11 October 2014 02:37:58PM 4 points [-]

I regularly think in terms of decibans, where 10 decibans = 90% confidence, 20 = 99%, 30 = 99.9%, 40 = 99.99%, etc. From that perspective, there's as much difference between 99% and 99.9% as there is between 99.9% and 99.99%. Put another way, if 99% is the cut-off, then anything more than 20 decibans of evidence is ignored, even if the answerer has at least 40 decibans.

Comment author: [deleted] 11 October 2014 05:18:49PM -1 points [-]

And yet every year lots and lots of respondents answer such questions with 0 or 100.