Douglas_Knight comments on [LINK] Amanda Knox exonerated - Less Wrong

9 Post author: fortyeridania 28 March 2015 06:15AM

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Comment author: V_V 28 March 2015 09:12:07PM *  1 point [-]

By looking at the genderless conditional probability ('somebody'), you're implying that women like Knox might have male-like murder levels, which is obviously wrong.

No, male-like murder levels would be higher than genderless murder levels. And, if I understand correctly, most of the excess male murder rate involves gang-related violence, which in this case was pretty clearly not involved.

Anyway, I agree that if you are doing pure Bayesian inference you have to condition on all kinds of available evidence, including gender, race, social class, nationality, etc. But we can't expect courts to consider this kind of evidence, for good reasons (avoid creating self-fulfilling prophecies and avoid incentivizing crime within certain demographics).

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 28 March 2015 10:29:00PM 4 points [-]

No, the male murder excess rate is not gang-related. Why would you think so?

Comment author: knb 29 March 2015 06:38:45AM 3 points [-]

Right. According to this huffpo post less than 10% of homicides are gang-related, which makes it impossible that gang violence could explain the 10:1 (male:female) homicide offending ratio.

Comment author: V_V 29 March 2015 09:44:21AM *  0 points [-]

I was thinking that most murders are gang-related and most gang members are male, but I see that this is disputed. Unfortunately, all the sources I can find seem to take a partisan position in the gun control debate, hence I don't know.

Comment author: Izeinwinter 29 March 2015 10:46:13AM 0 points [-]

Bad prior. Gang violence is a major murder statistic, but it's pretty far from being "most". Quick googling says: "1 in 6 murders". The most common motive, at 50% is "Argument". So.. men are more likely to escalate those to homocide?

Comment author: V_V 29 March 2015 01:55:56PM 1 point [-]

Bad prior. Gang violence is a major murder statistic, but it's pretty far from being "most". Quick googling says: "1 in 6 murders".

Makes sense.