jkaufman comments on Open Thread, May 18 - May 24, 2015 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: Gondolinian 18 May 2015 12:01AM

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Comment author: jkaufman 27 May 2015 02:41:53PM *  0 points [-]

When a charity says...

If someone is saying "I saved 10 lives" because they gave $500 to a charity that advertises a cost per life saved of $50, then yes, that's very different from actually saving lives. But the problem is that charities' reports of their cost effectiveness are ridiculously exaggerated, and you just shouldn't trust anything they say.

Instead they divide their budget of $Z by their estimate of Y lives saved and produce a dollars/life number.

What we want are marginal costs, not average costs, and these are what organizations like GiveWell try to estimate.

the causal chain is long and the longer it goes, the fuzzier it gets

Yes, this is real. But we're ok with assigning credit along longish causal chains in many domains; why exclude charity?

Comment author: Lumifer 27 May 2015 04:59:58PM 1 point [-]

you just shouldn't trust anything they say.

Oh, trust me, I don't :-D

What we want are marginal costs, not average costs

The problem with marginal costs is that they are conditional. For example, the marginal benefit of your $1000 contribution depends on whether someone made a $1m contribution around the same time.

But we're ok with assigning credit along longish causal chains in many domains; why exclude charity?

I don't know about that -- I'm wary of assigning credit "along longish causal chains", charity is not an exception for me.