Manfred comments on Open Thread, Jun. 22 - Jun. 28, 2015 - Less Wrong

6 Post author: Gondolinian 22 June 2015 12:01AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (203)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Manfred 23 June 2015 01:49:10AM *  5 points [-]

I think you should use the cream for a week, to start with.

Also, thought experiment: Suppose a person is going to live another 70 years. If undergoing some oversimplified miracle-cure treatment will cost, one way or another, 1 week of their life, what chance of "it's just a cyst" will they accept? 99.97%. So from the doctor's perspective (neglecting other risks or resources used, taking their '99.95%' probability estimate at face value, and assuming that a biopsy is some irreplaceable road to health), your condition is so likely to be benign that the procedure to surgically check spends your life at about the same rate as it saves it.