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James_Miller comments on Open Thread, Jul. 6 - Jul. 12, 2015 - Less Wrong
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Leaves the euro which causes an economic collapse which causes a political collapse and the emergence of a new government which makes nice with Germany and gets lots of money from the EU. (25% likely)
Gets a big loan from Russia that prevents an economic collapse (20% likely)
Comes to an agreement that locks in its bad but not horrible economic situation for another decade. (35% likely)
I'll give 10:1 odds against this happening. Russia has its own economic problems now with the drop in the price of oil and Ukrainian conflict, and other issues... China might be more likely, though IMO both Russia and China are a scare ploy by the Greeks.
A somewhat likely possibility is: Greece leaves the EU, triggering an economic collapse, possibly followed by a political collapse. Then spends many, many years trying to sort out itself and wishing it had stayed.
For Greece to leave the EU, as opposed to just the Euro, it would really have to anger the other members.
(Possibly stupid) off-topic question: Doesn't the colon notation p:q stand for p/q, so odds of 10/1 would contradict the unitary assumption about our universe, or is this just a hyperbole?
While the words "odds" and "probability" are often used interchangeably in everyday speech, they are different scales. The definition of odds is odds=p/(1-p). To go from odds to probabilities, you just reverse that so that p = odds/(1+odds)
While probabilities are bounded by zero and 1, odds are bounded by zero and positive infinity. Odds of 10 would be a perfectly legitimate way to express a probability of 10/(10+1) = 0.909