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Manfred comments on Open Thread, Jul. 6 - Jul. 12, 2015 - Less Wrong
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Man, like, anthropics is hard. Sometimes, when trying to propose an anthropic argument, you end up conditioning on something that is basically what you're trying to elicit a probability of, and things get weird.
If it makes you feel better, I have a head for this stuff and I strongly suspect that what he said is complete bunk. But I'm waiting for confirmation before I make that judgment.