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Andy_McKenzie comments on But There's Still A Chance, Right? - Less Wrong
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This reminds me of a conversation from Dumb and Dumber.
Lloyd: What are the chances of a guy like you and a girl like me... ending up together? Mary: Well, that's pretty difficult to say. Lloyd: Hit me with it! I've come a long way to see you, Mary. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances? Mary: Not good. Lloyd: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred? Mary: I'd say more like one out of a million. [pause] Lloyd: So you're telling me there's a chance.
Good post.
However: apply 1:1E6 to 260E6 million people in the US in 1994, there's probably 130 couples like them.
Far from the "still not happening even if you flip a (weighted) coin every second since the big bang"- chance in the post, but since Lloyd probably did not do the math and just ignored the actual value... yep, classical example.