Less Wrong is a community blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality. Please visit our About page for more information.

Thomas_B. comments on The Allais Paradox - Less Wrong

20 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 19 January 2008 03:05AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (133)

Sort By: Old

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: Thomas_B. 19 January 2008 06:00:24AM 0 points [-]

I think I missed something on the algebraic inconsistency part...

If there is some rational independent utility to certainty, the algebraic claims should be more like this:

* U($24,000) + U(Certainty) > 33/34 U($27,000) + 1/34 U($0) * 0.34 U($24,000) + 0.66 U($0) < 0.33 U($27,000) + 0.67 U($0)

This seems consistent so long as U(Certainty) > 1/34 U($27,000).

I'm not committed to the notion there is a rational independent value to certainty, I'm just not seeing how it can be dismissed with quick algebra. Maybe that wasn't your goal. Forgive me if this is my oversight.