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Jef_Allbright comments on Zut Allais! - Less Wrong

23 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 20 January 2008 03:18AM

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Comment author: Jef_Allbright 20 January 2008 06:41:09PM 1 point [-]

I see the importance of context generally overlooked in this discussion, as in most discussion of rationality (encompassing discussion of rational methods.) The elegance and applicability of Bayesian inference is to me undeniable, but I look forward to broader discussion of its application within systems of effective decision-making entailing prediction within a context which is not only uncertain but evolving. In other words, consideration of principles of effective agency where the game itself is inherently uncertain.

In doing so, I think we are driven to re-frame our thinking away from goals to be achieved and onto values to be promoted, away from rules to be followed and onto increasingly coherent principles to be applied, and away from maximizing expected utility and onto maximizing potential synergies within a game that is consistent but inherently incomplete. I see Bayes as necessary but not sufficient for this more encompassing view.