economic downturn amounting to at least a recession

You have a 90% probability that this "downturn" will lead to the US stock market losing two thirds of its value which is worse than 2008. That implies a bit more, um, severe event.

it's being implemented at a state level by federal grant, and I believe is intended to eventually operate as a set of interacting state databases

Ah, I know an expression that fits the situation well...