polymathwannabe comments on Open Thread, January 4-10, 2016 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: polymathwannabe 04 January 2016 01:06PM

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Comment author: polymathwannabe 12 January 2016 02:21:45PM -1 points [-]

Republicans to win 2016 presidential race, regardless of nomination: 80%

Why?

Comment author: OrphanWilde 12 January 2016 02:52:11PM 2 points [-]

Ever-increasing dissatisfaction with the government combined with the illusion of change provided by swapping political parties. The presidency has been passed back and forth between the parties for the last few decades as a result; the candidates really don't matter all that much, because voters aren't voting for the candidate, they're voting against what they see as the current status quo.

I'm expecting an acceleration, actually, as the current generation, with expectations shaped by the internet era, becomes the dominant voting force; which is to say, within the next twenty years, all presidents will become one-term presidents, and third party presidents will become viable contenders after the collapse of the major parties into infighting, unbolstered by eight-year terms in which the losing party reconsolidates its coalitions.

Comment author: polymathwannabe 12 January 2016 04:54:49PM -1 points [-]

The people's evaluation of Obama's performance appears rather even, and steadily so if you look at previous years in the same page.

Comment author: OrphanWilde 15 January 2016 02:18:12PM 2 points [-]

It's curious that you think this is a counterargument, particularly given that Obama's performance evaluation is historically low for a president.