Lumifer comments on Open Thread, Feb 8 - Feb 15, 2016 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: Elo 08 February 2016 04:47AM

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Comment author: Lumifer 08 February 2016 07:25:40PM 1 point [-]

An interesting discussion -- in the comments -- about meta-uncertainty or probabilities of probabilities. I say it's turtles all the way down :-)

Comment author: MrMind 09 February 2016 08:08:48AM *  2 points [-]

Sometimes they come back...
I'm a sucker for Jaynes, and I still think that Ap distributions are a much more solid contribution to the subject than any philosophical discussion of Knightian uncertainty or partition of the data, especially when you interpret Ap to be "the probability of retrieving a piece of evidence that will set P(A) = p".

Comment author: Manfred 09 February 2016 06:26:01AM 0 points [-]

Dunno, seems like Gelman is pretty correct to me. Which is to say, there are a finite number of turtles determined by the complexity of your model.

Comment author: Lumifer 09 February 2016 03:43:47PM 0 points [-]

You can always go one meta level higher and ask questions about your model from an outside view.