gwern comments on Open Thread, Feb 8 - Feb 15, 2016 - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (215)
Perhaps you should read the link. The argument is that the existing industry can be bought out and replaced by a nationalized agency that, because of reconciled incentives (the same government which is earning the income must also pay most of the healthcare costs, which vastly exceed the profits) can engage in strategies to manage the demand consistently downward with a variety of strategies such as reduced advertising, reduced nicotine content, or higher prices, which reduce the number of people who want tobacco products. If there is no demand because people have not gotten addicted and there are other substitutes for it*, then there is no reason to expect a black-market of large enough scale to make a meaningful difference to public health; if at the end of the managing down of the current 3m smokers, there's a small black-market of 10,000 people supported by cheaper stronger foreign cigarettes smuggled in through airports - then public health Mission Accomplished.
It's true that for many popular drugs, regulations or banning can have backlashes, but it's also possible for some drugs to just fade away or people rationally substitute similar but better drugs; the research chemical scene churns out hundreds or thousands of new drugs, many of which enjoy a brief burst of popularity until they get banned or people move on to the next new thing. The author gives some relevant examples from public health:
It's remarkable to see you attack it as a proposal for a full illegalization when in the first first section of the preface, the author denies that as a suggestion and warns that pro-tobacco people will try to strawman proposals into prohibition:
* funnily enough, I think 'substitutes' here is as broad as smartphones. One of the major uses of tobacco products has always seemed to be as something to do with your hands, kill time, and idly socialize with others (as suggested by smoking studies where nicotine-free cigarettes offer relief, indicating that tobacco addiction is as much about the habit and activity as the actual chemical contents), and smartphones can do all 3 at once.
The more I read the more compelling the smartphone replaces idea stands out to me.
Perhaps it could be marketed as a replacement to ciggies. If there were to be an app that replicated this kind of function, it would be good to go:
As the users of a drug forum comparing the difficulty of quiting cigarettes to heroin say:
Never thought of that! How clever.