Rationality lessons from Overwatch, a multiplayer first-person shooter:
1) Learning when you're wrong: The killcam, which shows how I died from the viewpoint of the person who killed me, often corrects my misconception of how I died. Real life needs a killcam that shows you the actual causes of your mistakes. Too bad that telling someone why they are wrong is usually considered impolite.
2) You get what you measure: Overwatch's post-game scoring gives metals for teamwork activities such as healing and shots blocked and this contributes to players' willingness to help their teammates.
3) Living in someone else's shoes: The game has several different classes of characters that have different strengths and weaknesses. Even if you rarely play a certain class, you get a lot from occasionally playing it to gain insight into how to cooperate with and defeat members of this class.
Addressing 1) "Learning when you're wrong" (in a more general sense):
Absolutely a good thing to do, but the problem is that you're still losing time making the mistakes. We're rationalists; we can do better.
I can't remember what book I read it in, but I read about a practice used in projects called a "pre-mortem." In contrast to a post-mortem, in which the cause of death is found after the death, a pre-mortem assumes that the project/effort/whatever has already failed, and forces the people involved to think about why.
Taking it as a given that the project has failed forces people to be realistic about the possible causes of failures. I think.
In any case, this struck me as a really good idea.
Overwatch example: If you know the enemy team is running a Mcree, stay away from him to begin with. That flashbang is dangerous.
Real life example: Assume that you haven't met your goal of writing x pages or amassing y wealth or reaching z people with your message. Why didn't you?
I am trying to outline main trends in AI safety this year, may I ask an advise what I should add or remove from the following list?
1.Elon Musk became the main player in AI field with his OpenAI program. But the idea of AI openness now opposed by his mentor Nick Bostrom, who is writing an article which is questioning safety of the idea of openness in the field of AI. http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/openness.pdf Personally I think that here we see an example of arrogance of billionaire. He intuitively come to idea which looks nice, appealing and may work...
The Einstein Toolkit Consortium is developing and supporting open software for relativistic astrophysics
this is a core product, that you can attach modules to for specific models that you want to run. able to handle GR on a cosmological scale !
Say you are a strong believer and advocate for the Silicon Valley startup tech culture, but you want to be able to pass an Ideological Turing Test to show that you are not irrational or biased. In other words, you need to write some essays along the lines of "Startups are Dumb" or "Why You Should Stay at Your Big Company Job". What kind of arguments would you use?
Being a believer in X inherently means, for a rationalist, that you think there are no good arguments against X.
Huh? You are proposing a very stark, black-and-white, all-or-nothing position. Recall that for a rationalist a belief has a probability associated with it. It doesn't have to be anywhere near 1. Moreover, a rationalist can "believe" (say, with probability > 90%) something against which good arguments exist. It just so happens that the arguments pro are better and more numerous than the arguments con. That does not mean that the arguments con are not good or do not exist.
And, of course, you should not think yourself omniscient. One of the benefits of steelmanning is that it acquaints you with the counterarguments. Would you know what they are if you didn't look?
I didn't realize that the biggest supporter of UBI in the US is the ex-leader of the Service Employees Union. Guess i will have to read that book next. Have Agars 'Humanities End' to tackle next..
http://www.alternet.org/economy/universal-basic-income-solves-robots-taking-jobs
and a write-up on why the elites don't get the Brexit drama right..
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-24/-citizens-of-the-world-nice-thought-but
Is the EU regulations on algorithmic decision-making and a “right to explanation” positive for our future? Does it make a world with UFAI less likely?
Room for improvement in Australia’s overseas development aid
...Poor countries typically receive aid from many donors. In Vietnam, Australia is one of 51 multilateral and bilateral donors (Vietnam Ministry of Planning 2010). Interactions between a large number of donors and a single recipient government can have a cumulative and damaging impact. For example, in 2005, the Tanzanian government produced about 2,400 reports for the more than 50 donors operating in the country (TASOET 2005: 1). In the Pacific Islands, some senior government officials are so busy
In the quest to optimize my sleep I have found over the last days that I relaxed a lot more as usual. I sleep on the side but I put cushion between my back and the wall so that part of my weight rests on the back and part rests on the mattress of the bed.
Are there any real reasons why standard beds are flat? Or is it just a cultural custom like our standard toilet design that exists for stupid reasons?
not that I know of. Various suggestions of sleeping with a body pillow exist. Hammocks exist. Plenty of people take naps on couches or in reclining chairs.
I wonder if it has anything to do with ease of manufacture.
I am sure you have read this: www.lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/mvf/
(relevant side note) Traditional Japanese beds are harder and thinner than western beds.
Is post-rationalism dead? I'm following some trails and the most updated material is at least three years old.
If so, good riddance?
Estimation of timing of AI risk
I want to once again try to assess expected time until Strong AI. I will estimate prior probability of AI, and then try to update it based on recent evidences.
At first, I will try to prove the following prior probability of AI: "If AI is possible, it most likely will be built in the 21 century, or it will be proven that the task has some very tough hidden obstacles". Arguments for this prior probability:
Science power argument. We know that humanity was able to solve many very complex tasks in the past, and it to
Comp Vision and Machine Learning conference on in Vegas. Some recommended reading at the bottom
https://sites.google.com/site/multiml2016cvpr/
and this is one guy blogging it, must be a lot of twittering too...
https://gab41.lab41.org/all-your-questions-answered-cvpr-day-1-40f488103076#.braqj1fdj
Quantified hedonism - Personal Key Performance Indicators
The phrase burn the boats comes from the VIking practice of burning boats on the shore before invading so they have to win and settle. No retreat, it's an inspiring analogy, but I heard it in the context of another Real Social Dynamics video, so the implication is to approach sets as if there is no retreat? Bizaare, those guys.....anyway that RSDPapa video suggested that personal KPI's were useful. What's measured gets improved, or so the saying goes. So which KPI's should you choose? After some thou...
Thoughts on the King, Warrior, Magician, Lover archetypes?
Having been at the self-dev, PUA, systems, psychology, lesswrong, kegan, philosophy, and other things - game for a very long time. My discerning eye suggests that some of the model is good, and some is bad. My advice to anyone looking at that model is that there are equal parts shit and diamonds. If you haven't been reading in this area for 9 years you can't see what's what. Don't hold anything too closely but be a sponge and absorb it all. Throw out the shit when you come across it and keep the diamonds.
At the end of the 4 (KWML) pages suggest some various intelligent and reasonable ways to develop one's self:
Room for improvement in Australia’s overseas development aid
Poor countries typically receive aid from many donors. In Vietnam, Australia is one of 51 multilateral and bilateral donors (Vietnam Ministry of Planning 2010). Interactions between a large number of donors and a single recipient government can have a cumulative and damaging impact. For example, in 2005, the Tanzanian government produced about 2,400 reports for the more than 50 donors operating in the country (TASOET 2005: 1). In the Pacific Islands, some senior government officials are so busy meeting donor–financed consultants and producing reports for donors that they have little time for the business of governing (AusAID 2008a: 21).
Perhaps we need a common OECD project committee or other multilateral aid review committees so only one reported needed rather than multiple reports - focus on fewer big ambitious projects rather than many small impact projects?
The EA community for historical reason doesn't do much analysis of government aid (actually, no one does), even though this is a fundamentally public activity in democratic countries. And that's reasonable, it's extremely complex to analyse incumbent donors. It's easier to think on the margins, and from the perspectives of individuals. To get started, I read through the Australian Governments Independent Review of Aid Effectiveness to identify the counter-intuitive takeaways.
what's the current scope of Australia's aid operations
'Australians are generous supporters of this cause. Each year the Australian people contribute $800 million to NGOs for aid work. Australia has some of the most active NGOs in the field and many Australians also volunteer their time and skills overseas. Additionally, on behalf of the people, the government provides $4 billion a year, and runs a substantial aid operation around the world.'
Why is this a timely issue
'The total volume of aid has grown dramatically, driven by: large increases in aid from traditional donors (basically the Western industrialised countries); the emergence of new non–government donors (such as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation) and global funds (for example the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria); and the rapid growth in aid from non–traditional donors such as China and Brazil'
Not to mention the emergence of history's pre-eminent aid effectiveness focussed civic community - effective altruists
Effective Development Group:
“While we believe the aid program should aim at contributing to development and poverty reduction efforts overseas, we need to recognise its limited capacity to yield results, and even sometimes its potential counterproductive effect over the longer term, given the sheer complexity of the dynamics at play and the many factors/actors that contribute to them.”
-quoted in the Australian Government Independent Review of Aid -Effectiveness Chapter 1-3
----Policy proposals----
Multilateral aid consolidation
The Australian Government's Independent Review of Aid Effectiveness identified that the principle operating procedure for Australian foreign aid should be value for money. Those multilateral organisations that they have recently found and in the future those which they find to have a poor or worse overall assessment of value for money should be stripped of their funding, which is probably in the hundreds of millions and possibly into the billions
References: see part 3 of Independent Review of Aid Effectiveness
Independence from aid
To ensure Australia's aid partners don't become dependent on Australian foreign aid, thus destabilising foreign economies stability and self-reliance - e.g. undercutting farmers produce at the markets thus depriving them of incentives to produce, thus becoming more dependent and creating less surplus and thus greater deprivation and poverty over the long term and greater costs to our aid budget
Scaling down aid or halting expansion of aid in geographic areas identified by the review where there is both a low case for expansion but high reliance on bilateral delivery channels
References: see part 3 of Independent Review of Aid Effectiveness
Defragmentation
(see print screen of page 39 in chapters 1-3 of the report)
To put it simply, there are too many small ineffective programs and these are costing wellbeing and Australian dollars.
'Evidence of the problems of fragmentation, and recommendations to help reduce it, are a recurring theme through this Report. It needs a sustained effort to consolidate and tighten political and bureaucratic discipline in the future.'
-chapters 1-3
Public communication
Aid budget given to communicating effectiveness or otherwise:
'The government does not have an effective communications strategy for the aid program. This contrasts for example with the proactive communications practices of the Australian Defence Force. The contrast was particularly stark following the Padang earthquake in Indonesia when the ADF actively promoted publicly the work it had done, whereas there was very limited coverage of the Au said effort. A generally ad hoc and reactive approach may have been viable for a small program, but it will not work given the increased scrutiny the program will face as it grows. Asiad’s leadership has been more forthcoming and more publicly available than in the past, and this is a welcome development.'
'The Review Panel does not advocate a public relations strategy which is merely self–congratulatory. The issue is, rather, ensuring that the Australian public are able to obtain an accurate and full account of the resources which are being devoted to aid, both the accomplishments and the difficulties. Fostering more informed public debate about the program is healthy and appropriate. The Australian people have a right to know why Australia gives aid and what is being achieved with their money. But the requirement goes beyond public information. It is also desirable that there should be a greater sense of public engagement with the aid program. The Review Panel makes a number of recommendations in this regard.'
Seconded recommendations that are obvious
'Recommendation 37: A Transparency Charter should be developed, committing the aid program to publishing documents and data in a way that is comprehensive, accessible and timely.'
National interest scepticism
One problem with the objective of the program as it is presently stated is that it is unclear and ambiguous in relation to how the national interest should figure in the program. The Review Panel believes that this issue should be brought out into the open and addressed squarely. Those responsible for managing the transition to the much increased aid program of the future need clarity and guidance.
In the first place, Australia’s interests are served by a world of prosperity and opportunity, rather than one plagued by poverty.
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