turchin comments on Open Thread, Sept 5. - Sept 11. 2016 - Less Wrong
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It doesn't influence timing of the possible catastrophe much. Most people who goes deep in the topic have read (and publish) about DA. So we could use number of the articles about DA to get known distribution of DA-aware-observers. I suspect it is exponential. This means that the medium rank-number of DA-aware-observers are near the end of the time line.