turchin comments on Open Thread, Sept 5. - Sept 11. 2016 - Less Wrong

6 Post author: Elo 05 September 2016 12:59AM

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Comment author: turchin 05 September 2016 02:54:39PM 1 point [-]

It doesn't influence timing of the possible catastrophe much. Most people who goes deep in the topic have read (and publish) about DA. So we could use number of the articles about DA to get known distribution of DA-aware-observers. I suspect it is exponential. This means that the medium rank-number of DA-aware-observers are near the end of the time line.