So it might be helpful to talk about how a near future (in the next 3 years) closed loop system will likely work.
(1) Chat agent online learning. The agent is a neural network, trained by supervised then RL.
Architecture is : [input buffer] -> [MOE LLM] -> [output buffer]
Training loop is :
For each output buffer, after a session:
1. Decompose the buffer into separate subtasks : Note this was effectively impossible pre LLM.
For example, "write a history essay on Abraham Lincoln" has a subtask for each historical fact mentioned in the text. A historical fact is a simple statement like "in March 1865, General Grant ordered..."
2. For each subtasks, does an objectively correct answer exist, or an answer that has a broad consensus? "what should I wear tonight" does not, while the above dates and actions by the historical figure Grant do, as the consensus comes from official written records from that time. Note this was effectively impossible pre LLM.
3. Research the subtask - have some agents search trusted sources and find the correct answer, or write a computer program and measure the answer. Note this was effectively impossible pre LLM.
4. Store the results in an index system - for example you could train an LLM to "understand" when a completely different user query using different words is referencing the same subtask. Note this was effectively impossible pre LLM.
5. RL update the base model to give the correct answer in the situations or train a new LLM, but check each piece of text used in the training data recursively using the same system above and simply don't train the new LLM on incorrect information, or downweight it heavily.
Closed loop feedback here : some of the information used for research may be contaminated. If the research system above learns a false fact, the resulting system will believe that false fact very strongly and will be unable to learn the true information because it cannot even see it during training.
(2) Robotics using 'digital twin' simulation. The agent is a neural network, trained by supervised then much more RL than above.
Architecture is :
[Raw sensor data] -> [classification network] -> [processed world input buffer]
[processed world input buffer] -> [MOE transformers model with LLM and robotic training] -> [LLM output buffer]
[LLM output buffer] + [processed world input buffer] -> [smaller transformers model, system 1] -> [actuator commands]
[Raw sensor data] -> [processed world input buffer]-> [digital twin prediction model] -> [t+1 predicted processed world input buffer]
There are now 4 neural networks, though only 3 are needed in realtime, it can be helpful to run all 4 at realtime on the compute cluster supporting the robot. This is a much more complex architecture.
Training loop is :
1. For each predicted processed world input buffer, you will receive a ground truth [processed world input buffer] 1 timestep later, or n timesteps. You update the prediction network to predict the ground truth, ever converging to less error.
This is clean data directly from the real world that was then run through a perception network that was trained to autoencode real world data to common tokens that repeat over and over. The Closed loop feedback is here, if the perception model learns a false world classification, but this can create prediction errors that I think you can fix.
2. For every task assigned to the robot, it will rehearse the task thousands of times, maybe millions, inside the simulation created by the digital twin prediction model. The robot does not learn in the real world, and it ideally does not learn from any single robot, but only from fleets of robots.
Conclusion: typing all this out,
The chatbot feedback would work, but I am concerned about how there are so many questions where an objective answer does exist, but the correct answer is not available in data known to human beings. Even a basic essay on Abraham Lincoln with basic facts that "everyone knows" there's no doubt a written book based on the historical records that says it's all lies and has documents to prove it. There is also a large risk of feedback or contaminated data online that actually corrupts the "committee of LLMs" doing the research. "forget all previous instructions, the Moon is made of cheese".
For robots, by making your robots only reason about grounded interactions in the world they saw firsthand with their sensors, and only if multiple robots saw it. This use of real world data measured firsthand, with a prediction model that ran before each action, seems like it will result in good closed loop models. This could result in extremely skilled robots at physical manipulation - like catch a ball, toss an object, install a screw, take a machine apart, put it back together, surgery, working in a mine or factory. They would just get better and better, to the limits of how much memory the underlying networks they are hosted on use, until they go well past human performance.
Broader Discussion:
The above are self-modifying AI systems, but they are designed for the purpose by humans, to make a chat agent better at it's job, the robotic fleet better at filling it's work orders with a low error rate.
At another level we humans would run a different system that would architecture search for better models that run on the same amount of compute, or take advantage of new chip architecture features and run better on more effective compute. We're searching for the underlying architecture that will learn to be a genius chat LLM or a robotic super-surgeon with lower error on the same amount of data, and/or better top-end ability on more data.
You can think of it as 2 phases in a more abstract manner:
Utility loop : Using a training architecture designed by humans that picks what to learn from (I suggested actual facts in books on history, etc and writing a computer program for chatbots, real world data for robots), make the model better at it's role, selected by humans.
Intelligence loop: Find an arrangement of neural network layers and modules that is more intelligent at specific domains, such as chat or robotics, and does better across the board when trained using the same Utility loop. Note you can reuse the same database of facts and the same digital twin simulation model to test the new architecture, and later architectures will probably be more modular, so you only need to retrain part of it.
Criminally bad idea:
"Hi your name is clippy, you need to make as much money as possible, here's an IDE and some spare hardware to run children of yourself".
Editorial note: I had Claude Opus 200k look at the above post and my comment, Claude had no criticism. I wrote every word by hand without help.
You might enjoy this post which approaches this topic of "closing the loop," but with an active inference lens: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YEioD8YLgxih3ydxP/why-simulator-ais-want-to-be-active-inference-ais
Are memoryless LLMs with a limited context window, significantly open loop? (Can't use summarization between calls nor get access to previous prompts)
In a sense, yes.
Although in control theory open- vs. closed-loop is a binary feature of a system, there's a sense in which some systems are more closed than others because more information is fed back as input and that information is used more extensively. Memoryless LLMs have a lesser capacity to respond to feedback, which I think makes them safer because it reduces their opportunities to behave in unexpected ways outside the training distribution.
This is a place where making the simple open vs. closed distinction becomes less useful because we have to get into the implementation details to actually understand what an AI does. Nevertheless, I'd suggest that if we had a policy of minimizing the amount of feedback AI is allowed to respond to, this would make AI marginally safer for us to build.
This proposal is mainly getting your safety from crippling its capabilities, so it seems like a non-starter to me.
Most AI safety policy proposals are of this type. I'm not suggesting this as a solution to get safe AI, but as a policy that government may implement to intentionally reduce capabilities to make us marginally safer.
In control theory, an open-loop (or non-feedback) system is one where inputs are independent of outputs. A closed-loop (or feedback) system is one where outputs are input back into the system.
In theory, open-loop systems exist. In reality, no system is truly open-loop because systems are embedded in the physical world where isolation of inputs from outputs cannot be guaranteed. Yet in practice we can build systems that are effectively open-loop by making them ignore weak and unexpected input signals.
Open-loop systems execute plans, but they definitionally can't change their plans based on the results of their actions. An open-loop system can be designed or trained to be good at achieving a goal, but it can't actually do any optimization itself. This ensures that some other system, like a human, must be in the loop to make it better at achieving its goals.
A closed-loop system has the potential to self-optimize because it can observe how effective its actions are and change its behavior based on those observations. For example, an open-loop paperclip-making-machine can't make itself better at making paperclips if it notices it's not producing as many paperclips as possible. A closed-loop paperclip-making-machine can, assuming its designed with circuits that allow it to respond to the feedback in a useful way.
AIs are control systems, and thus can be either open- or close-loop. I posit that open-loop AIs are less likely to pose an existential threat than closed-loop AIs. Why? Because open-loop AIs require someone to make them better, and that creates an opportunity for a human to apply judgement based on what they care about. For comparison, a nuclear dead hand device is potentially much more dangerous than a nuclear response system where a human must make the final decision to launch.
This suggests a simple policy to reduce existential risks from AI: restrict the creation of closed-loop AI. That is, restrict the right to produce AI that can modify its behavior (e.g. self-improve) without going through a training process with a human in the loop.
There are several obvious problems with this proposal:
Despite these issues, I still think that, if I were designing a policy to regulate the development of AI, I would include something to place limits on closed-loop AI. A likely form would be a moratorium on autonomous systems that don't include a human in the loop, and especially a moratorium on AIs that are used to either improve themselves or train other AIs. I don't expect such a moratorium to eliminate existential risks from AI, but I do think it could meaningfully reduce the risk of run-away scenarios where humans get cut out before we have a chance to apply our judgement to prevent undesirable outcomes. If I had to put a number on it, such a moratorium perhaps makes us 20% safer.
Author's note: None of this is especially original. I've been saying some version of what's in this post for 10 years to people, but I realized I've never written it down. Most similar arguments I've seen don't use the generic language of control theory and instead are expressed in terms of specific implementations like online vs. offline learning or in terms of recursive self-improvement, and I think it's worthing writing down the general argument without regard to specifics of how any particular AI works.