Bryan Caplan of Econlog asks his readers how to improve his will (given a few constraints) in light of the principles of optimal philanthropy. His current draft reads:
I give and bequeath to whatever charity is currently ranked #1 by GiveWell, the sum of $100,000 adjusted for inflation since 2013 using the U.S. Consumer Price Index, or 10% of the total value of my estate excluding our primary residence, whichever is smaller. If GiveWell no longer exists, I give and bequeath the same sum to another charity, selected by my wife and children, dedicated to helping the deserving poor in the Third World in a maximally cost-effective manner. I request that my wife and children consult my friends Robin Hanson, Alexander Tabarrok, Fabio Rojas, James Schneider, Michael Huemer, William Dickens, and Jason Brennan to help them select the most cost-effective charity with this mission. If possible, funding for this bequest should come from my tax-deferred 403(b) retirement accounts.
The full blog post can be found here.
Robin Hanson responds:
I fear "the Third World" might not be a robust reference, and that GiveWell will no longer exist. You might pick some "ex ante % chance that I'd have died by now", such as 25%, and give the money away when you are at an age where you've suffered that % chance. This could ensure at 75% chance that you'll give the money away yourself.
(It's not only liquid assets if you only exclude the primary residence, per your comment.)
The LW demographics are skewed towards working in/seeking education for MINT fields (mathematics, informatics, natural sciences, and technics), high IQ and high-achiever status all, among other such factors.
That means that status as an active LW'er is strongly associated with factors which indicate a high earning potential, without necessarily positing any increase in earning potential based on the "insight porn" of internet forum procrastinating. There may be such a benefit as well, but I didn't have it in mind when writing the grandparent. Could be just selection effects, especially if people are already set on their career paths once finding LW.
Finding the direction of a potential causal influence is always fun, but the correlation suffices, whichever way the cookie crumbles.
If you are active primarily because of a perceived correlation between being active and winning, you should care very much whether being active causes winning or if there is a common cause of winning and being active.
Noting your correction: you would need to have $100k in liquid assets and $1m in total assets (excluding a primary residence). That's not nearly so hard, particularly if you are a sole proprietor in a moderately successful endeavor. It does mean that you risk leaving that endeavor with lots of capital equipment but no way of covering operating... (read more)