This doesn't look like a bet. It looks like a service for which you charge €3500 and 3+ months of the customer's time, but will refund €2000 of that if they don't think you lived up to your claims.
Yeah, I agree that this is one (I feel a little bit too harsh) way to put it. But I feel that in a certain important sense it still is a bet.
Also, saying I "charge" 3+ months of people's time seems a bit missleading, like saying a restaurant charges their customers' time when they eat at that restaurant.
Anyway, I see lots of down votes, so apparently quite a few people are annoyed by my way of putting it!?
I agree that although it costs the customer 3 months, saying that you "charge" them 3 months doesn't sound fair. It's not like you get those 3 months somehow.
But it sounds also fair to tell the potential customer explicitly that even if it doesn't work, it will still cost them 3 months and €1500. And if it does, then it will cost them €3500.
The real (hidden) cost seems to be the 3 month without working. Looks like in Germany the average net wage is 2600€/month, thus, on top of the 1500€-3500€ price range, a user would face an opportunity cost of about 7800€. This is not factoring in the possible cost of the program, most notably therapy sessions, but also not factoring in the avoided costs of not working (fuel for example).
Which leads me to the following question: how does this opportunity compare to taking 3 month off? In particular, if someone is stressed or sleep-deprived because of work, then surely taking vacations will have positive effects.
if someone is stressed or sleep-deprived because of work, then surely taking vacations will have positive effects.
If someone’s mental health problems are caused only by insufficient free time/energy/sleep, then yes. I’d wager the majority of depression cases are caused by work-independent internal factors, and either would resolve on their own (even while working) or would not resolve even when taking three months off.
I suspect that there are many programs that would work on these terms. If you can get people to do things, then you can get them to be happier. But adherance is actually quite hard, especially around behavioral interventions for depression.
It's all about creating the right conditions! For example, almost everyone can meditate 5+ hours a day in a silent meditation retreat centre. Yet very few can do it outside such a setting.
Correction: almost everyone from a preselected group of people who
1) are interested in meditation enough to try going to a retreat where they are supposed to meditate for 5+ hours.
and
2) can afford it.
People frequently drop out of silent retreats, and they're already a self-selected group. Curious where you're getting you're data that almost everyone adheres in a silent retreat.
I've done 5 10 day long retreats and just eye-balling how many people were still there at the end, I'd say at least 95% managed to stay till the end.
I also know two people with ADHD who say they struggle a lot with discipline, yet they both managed to meditate 6+ hours everyday on said retreats.
My only data is personal anecdotes like this.
Update 9/23: I wrote this blog post a while ago. I no longer endorse the style and some of the content of this post. It still agree with all the essence of it, so it's still here. You might also want to check out these slides (optimized to make sense on their own) to see my latest thinking on this topic.
Important Caveat: All of the following are true: I'm serious about this bet. I'm also trying to sell something with this bet. I think this post is very useful/has an important message even if you aren't interested at all in my service or in the bet per se.
The title says it all: I bet you 1000€ that I can dramatically improve your subjective well-being and psychological health as well as cure your depression if you have any, all in 3 months, with a significant part of the improvements persisting permanently.
How it works
What does the brute-forcing happiness (BFH) program look like?
The BFH program is nothing mysterious or surprising. It's just taking all the energy and time that you would usually spend on a normal job or studying and instead spending it on a mix of the usual well-known proven to work mental health interventions: 4-6 hours of meditation a day, daily Cognitive Behavioural Therapy exercises, mindful walks, daily exercising, and various emotional growth techniques like Internal Family Systems, Focusing, etc. Throw in some fairly strict digital detox, good sleep hygiene, as many therapy sessions as possible, restricting yourself to only wholesome activities in your free time, plus a few more special tricks & interventions - and that's already the gist of it.
Here is what a typical 16-hour day might look like:
The above is what a standard day might look like when brute forcing your happiness. Call it “casual retreat mode”. For the bet, the further requirement is that for half of those three months you also go into "full-time retreat mode". You can for example alternate 1-3 weeks of the former with the same length of the latter. In the latter you additionally:
As you can see, the BFH program is a full-time program. You cannot have a job or any other obligations at the same time. At least not if you want to do the bet.
The BFH program is also extremely strict and very difficult to follow through! That's why my key task as BFH buddy is to do everything in my might to make sure you actually follow through with it. This includes talking about and finding solutions to various failure modes in advance, e.g. Murphy Jitsu style; coming up with a whole range of various accountability mechanisms together that work specifically for you; managing your motivation and willpower carefully throughout the program; etc.
When does the bet count as successful?
In general, I won't be very nitty-gritty, and I would ask you to do the same. I will assume positive intent! It would be extremely difficult to precisely specify the conditions of the bet, so instead, I will simply trust your honour as a rationalist and count the bet as successful/failed if you say so at the end. With that said, here's an attempt to specify the bet in more detail:
Can I just hire you as a retreat buddy for shorter or less strict versions of the program?
Yes you can! I'm currently exploring this as a business model of mine. You can hire me as your emotional work or brute-forcing happiness retreat buddy for any length of time, for whatever version of a retreat that works for you, full-time or part-time, for an incredibly cheap 30€/day. For certain part-time or online solutions, I might charge less.
It's only if you want to do the 1000€ bet that you need to do the full strict three-month version of the program.
Since we're staying together anyway, you can also hire me for additional services at the same time, for additional fees. For example:
For now, I need to be in Berlin every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday around noon. I can travel anywhere for the rest of the week.
You can contact me at anton.rodenhauser{at}hotmail.com to schedule a call etc. with me.
Please also help me by giving me feedback on the content & writing, etc. of this post: https://www.admonymous.co/eternallyblissfulanton
See also my related post, Don’t waste your time meditating on meditation retreats.
Find some motivation to do this here: How I Attained Persistent Self-Love, or, I Demand Deep Okayness For Everyone.