I'm surprised, as a poker player, you didn't include the example that it's pretty well known that the most important skill in poker is game selection. Playing well, knowing the odds, and reading your opponents are important, but your win rate is almost completely determined by whether you're playing in soft games, and leaving when the lineup is tough.
Separately, I think you should introduce into this framework the idea of comparative advantage (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage). In most pursuits, it matters not just how good your product is, but also how much better YOUR product is than the competition. Absolute goodness is rarely enough, in the world of plenty we live in. This means that even if many people prefer a thai-style omlette, the fact that it's much less demanding to produce than a french omlette means it's not as profitable/useful to be good at it.
Ah, that's a really great point about game selection and it totally escaped me! Thanks for mentioning it. Taking it further, nowadays people are moving away from holdem and towards games like PLO and Short Deck because holdem has gotten too competitive.
I agree about comparative advantage, but I'm not sure that it'd be going down that path. There's a lot that can be said about what makes a dish good/better. My sense is that it's better to restrict the scope of the post to the idea that it's often worth looking for a better dish than how to go about doing so.
Unironically eating the french omelette is bad. But it's a great 'chef test' precisely because it sucks and is tricky to get to mediocre.
The Thai style omelette is obviously a superior thing to eat, but by virtue of being such a good idea it will tend to apologize for the imperfections of the chef making it. If the Thai omelette is a 20x multiplier on execution, then it's more than 20x harder to tell the difference between good at execution and great at execution. Your ability to judge quality hits a ceiling at some point and you get a bunch of candidates where you go 'wow, this guy's really good', and then a few months later the flaws become more noticeable. The french omelette, by virtue of being a terrible idea, takes you to a scale where the gradient of chef quality is easier to judge.
I think you're generally right that people tend to miss the point that you should not put great tests on pedestals and that it's silly to order french omelettes at restaurants. But proxy variables do have their place. I guess my main gripe is the rest of the post doesn't seem to follow from how you constructed the omelette story.
Unironically eating the french omelette is bad... and that it's silly to order french omelettes at restaurants
Huh, really? I didn't realize that, I thought it was considered to be both a good chefs test and a good dish. I just skimmed through the Serious Eats post again though and am not actually seeing a claim that it is such a good dish though, so maybe you're right. I've never actually had one myself.
but by virtue of being such a good idea it will tend to apologize for the imperfections of the chef making it. If the Thai omelette is a 20x multiplier on execution, then it's more than 20x harder to tell the difference between good at execution and great at execution.
I don't think that's necessarily true. It's possible that a dish has a large spread: it can be, say, 20x better if executed well and 20x worse if executed poorly. How good a dish is (when executed reasonably well) and how forgiving it is are two separate things. But perhaps they're correlated.
I think you're generally right that people tend to miss the point that you should not put great tests on pedestals and that it's silly to order french omelettes at restaurants. But proxy variables do have their place. I guess my main gripe is the rest of the post doesn't seem to follow from how you constructed the omelette story.
The main idea isn't really about tests and proxy variables. To use a different analogy, it's about the explore-exploit tradeoff. Sometimes continuing to exploit is unwise and you'd be much better off exploring entirely different "dishes".
When I was reading the omelette example, I was not thinking at all what the rest of this post is about
Yeah, it's not the best analogy. It's not obvious enough that moving from the French omelette to the Thai-style one is in fact a significant upgrade. The whole idea of the post is that sometimes moving to a different "dish" yields much better results than improving the current one, so I wanted the "significant upgrade" part to be visceral and clear. I don't feel like I was able to get to that point though. I messed around with the omelette example and also tried thinking of different examples but wasn't able to get to a point where I was particularly satisfied.
Is that where you are coming from? Or are you saying that the main idea of the post didn't shine through in the first section?
(I really appreciate this sort of feedback btw. It helps me as a writer. Thank you!)
It seems like multiplication isn't the right model, because different ideas have different "work : profit" curves.
For example, the idea of "getting a job" will give you a relatively safe income with mediocre execution, but with the additional effort the profit scales logarithmically. On the other hand, if you sell something online, a good marketing campaign can increase your profit dramatically. Some jobs are about persistence, for example if people pay for your lectures, then the fact that you are already giving lectures for 20 years and have thousands of satisfied customers, becomes a sufficient reason for more people to pay you. Some jobs are about luck, like you produce Angry Birds, and maybe you make millions, but most likely no one will care.
So "choosing a better dish" could be realizing that in your current situation (your preferences, skills, resources), a different idea has a better curve than your current one.
1
From what I understand, despite its simplicity, there aren't many dishes held in higher esteem by the culinary community[1] than the French omelette.
To all of you uncultured numskulls out there who don't spend hours upon hours watching YouTube videos about cooking like I do, a French omelette looks like this:
See how it's underdone and creamy inside? It's not the same thing that you cook for breakfast in the morning with ham and cheese. Adding cheese to a proper French omelette would be like adding ketchup to a good steak. A good steak doesn't need ketchup, and a good French omelette doesn't need cheese. It's perfect just the way it is and you'd be covering up that perfection if you added something to it.[2]
But getting a French omelette right requires a certain level of mastery.[3] Let's hear what Dan Gritzer of Serious Eats has to say:
Wow. That's a lot.
Forgive me if I'm being naive, but does it really matter if there are little black flecks of pepper on it? If it is a perfect almond shape? If it is baveuse?
Kenji-Lopez Alt doesn't think so. He sees a lot of merit to a Thai-style omelette, and even prefers it to the French one.
Instead of being perfectly smooth, careful not to add any browning like the French omelette, the Thai one is unapologetically fried and crispy. Yum! It's served over rice for some balance and contrast, and often times people will throw in something like ground pork or aromatic herbs in there. It's also common to have it with a dipping sauce. Kenji used palm sugar, garlic, chilies, fish sauce, and lime for his, although it's traditional to just squeeze some fish sauce or sriracha on top. And unlike the French omelette, it doesn't take years to get past the point of "it's not bad".
I'm with Kenji. I think the Thai-style omelette is better. And I think this says something about ideas vs execution.
Even if you train for years and years and master the French omelette like that guy Soltner, I still don't think it's as good as a Thai-style one you'd find from any old street vendor in Thailand. At least in my opinion, flavor and textural variety are really important, and the Thai style omelette does a great job with those things. On the other hand, the French omelette does not. It doesn't even try to.
Here's a different example that I think is analogous. Consider pasta with butter and salt. That is analogous to a french omelette. How good could you get that dish? It's just pasta, butter and salt. Sure, there is something comforting and satisfying about simple dishes. But if you want to reach a certain level, simple dishes won't get you there. They can only take you so far.
This post isn't actually supposed to be about culinary stuff though, so let's just accept my premise that the Thai-style omelette is better (or at least has a higher ceiling) because of the more complex flavors and textures and move on.[4]
What is the implication of that? Well, we've got a situation where choosing the right dish yields you much better results than improving your ability to execute.
2
Richard Hamming understands this. He is a mathematician who is known for asking The Hamming Question: "what are the most important problems in your field, and why aren’t you working on them?" Choosing the right problems to work on almost always yields vastly better results than executing better on the problem you're currently working on.
From his 1986 talk You and your research:
I've seen various others make this point as well. Sam Altman is one.
3
I don't want to pretend that everything is always all about choosing the right dish. Sometimes execution is more important. Other times they're of similar importance. Often times it's just more complicated than a simple "more/less important".
I think that choosing a good career vs "executing" inside of a given career is a good example of this.
Basically, I'm a subscriber to Cal Newport's ideas on careers. He says that "follow your passion" is bad advice. What actually leads to satisfaction is autonomy, mastery and relationships, and the path towards those things involves becoming So Good They Can't Ignore You. Furthermore, as you become that good at what you do, passion starts to develop.
That sort of stuff sounds like it fits under "executing" as opposed to "choosing the right dish". "Choosing the right dish" would be exploring a different career. "Executing" would be making progress within your current career.
So maybe executing is the thing that is more important in the context of careers? Well, my one word answer would be "yes", but it's a little bit more complicated than that.[5] Regardless, the point I want to get across in this section is a caveat: choosing the right dish is just something to consider, not an approach that is always appropriate.
4
In the context of business, Derek Sivers says Ideas are just a multiplier of execution. From that post:
As I alluded to in the previous section, I think reality is more complicated than this. But I also think that his post is a good way of framing things. As they say: all models are wrong, but some are useful.
That Derek Sivers post has always felt curious to me though. What's with the word "just"? How is the takeaway that execution is more important than ideas? Where did he get those numbers from?
My intuition is kinda the opposite actually. As an example, I had a weak idea with Premium Poker Tools. It never had the potential to be more than some sort of indie project. Brilliant execution wouldn't have gotten me to $10M. The market simply isn't large enough.
This is a really deep topic that I don't want to dive too far down in this post. Let's just say that I think ideas are super, super important for businesses.[6] The multipliers are much larger than the values Sivers uses, and similar to the Hamming Question, you could have vastly more success by finding the right problem to solve than by executing better on the problem you are currently working on.
5
Over the past however many months, I had plans to build a calibration training web app. Then I listened to Phillip Tetlock's interview on the 80,000 Hours podcast. There I came across Open Philanthropy's version of the same app: https://80000hours.org/calibration-training.
It's pretty much what I planned on building and the logical part of me no longer thinks it's worth building my own version. But there's some emotional part of me that still wants to chug along anyway. Some sort of inertia. I had all of these plans and I feel a certain momentum that is carrying me towards these plans that is difficult to fight against, even though the logical part of me thinks it's ridiculous.
I suspect that this is common. More generally, I think that when you're working on a given dish, there's a similar inertia that makes you want to keep executing on it. Choosing a new dish is frequently an ugh field.
It makes me think back to Is That Your True Rejection? Sorta. Sure, people might agree that it's often wise to choose a new dish. But that doesn't hit at their true objection. The reason why people don't change dishes isn't because they think they should keep going with their current dish. The true reason is the emotional inertia.
It also makes me think back to How An Algorithm Feels From The Inside. One of the reasons I thought that post was cool is that it doesn't just explain the right thing, it shows you exactly what your brain is currently doing and why it's wrong. I'm not sure if I hit the nail on the head here with my emotional inertia hypothesis, but figuring out why exactly we feel compelled to stick to our current dish seems important.
6
I'm in Old Town Chiang Mai right now sitting in a coffee shop on my laptop writing this post with a 1,000 year old Buddhist temple right across the street. Maybe I should be on the other side.
There's a pretty sharp divide here between (mostly white) foreigners and locals, each of whom seem to have chosen a different dish. Both are pursuing happiness, however you want to define that, but each is taking a different path towards it. Foreigners tend to be focused on making money, whereas local Thais are much more lax about making money and much more focused on, for lack of a better term, inner enlightenment.
For example, let's consider a user persona of Alice the foreign entrepreneur. Alice used to work in a cubicle but decided that life isn't for her. Now she sells niche marketing software online.
Her business is doing pretty well. She is originally from Germany but moved to Thailand for the digital nomad scene. She hustles for about 10 hours a day, working out of various coffee shops and otherwise lives a pretty comfortable life. She gets massages, eats at high end restaurants, pays for people to do her laundry and clean her condo. She goes on cool vacations and retreats every so often. Since she is doing well financially, she helps her parents save for her little sister to go to grad school.
Nevertheless, Alice isn't particularly happy. Even with the most pessimistic forecasts, she could probably quit everything right now at the age of 30 and be able to retire. But she still feels compelled to work. She still feels pressure to hit her KPI goals, and she still checks her email throughout the night until she goes to sleep around 11pm.
One option Alice has is to continue focusing on execution.
But will that lead to happiness? No. This is a fictional character so the question is kinda nonsensical but I don't care: I'm still going to claim that her focus on execution will not lead to happiness. Instead of focusing on execution, I claim that she needs to choose a better dish. And who knows, maybe that dish is staring her in the face right across the street.
Maybe because the "culinary community" stems from strong French nationalism and thinks other cuisines need to conform to that style of food. Adam Ragusea has a great video discussing this.
Well, that's true for low class additions like cheese or ketchup. If you want to add something more bourgeois to a French omelette like chilled shrimp salad, it looks like that has been deemed acceptable, if slightly frowned upon. Similarly, I've seen steak sauces at fancy steakhouses before.
At least it's not sushi where chefs spend God knows how many years perfecting their sushi rice before they can ever touch a fish. But I suspect that is more about needing a costly signal to prove that young chefs are actually serious as opposed to them truly believing that the rice is that important. I wouldn't be surprised if there was some belief in belief though.
The way I see it, the larger point I'm making in this post (DH6 in Paul Graham's disagreement heirarchy) about "choosing the right dish" being a thing that is oftentimes very important doesn't actually depend on the particular examples of omelettes or pasta.
Caveats:
- I'm sure there are some careers where you can be "so good" and they'll still "ignore you".
- As a programmer, my sense is that the bar for being "so good" to the point where you get treated well and have a good job is a good deal lower than, say, a lawyer. Even as a successful, Ivy league educated lawyer, the work world still isn't all too rosy. Maybe there's a point where you're so good that it becomes rosy, but that seems perhaps impractically hard to reach.
- You probably have to move sideways at some point instead of continuing to climb the ladder. Eg. a doctor climbing the ladder might become the head of the cardiology department at some big hospital, but maybe that is just a stressful, unpleasant job. Instead, maybe the doctor would have to step sideways towards a private practice that does things the right way and doesn't accept insurance.
In all three of these examples, "choosing the right dish" starts to become more important than execution.
To make things even more complicated, let's imagine things as a three-dimensional graph.
- Satisfaction is a function of both career choice and talent.
- For some values of
careerChoice
, likeflippingBurgers
, the slope of satisfaction with respect to talent is small. WithcareerChoice === flippingBurgers
, you can increase talent a lot and it's not gonna have all that large an impact on satisfaction.- But maybe high levels of talent allow you to move
careerChoice
fromflippingBurgers
tobranchManager
oropenABurgerStand
, and maybe the slope goes up with those values ofcareerChoice
. In which case, with high levels of talent forflippingBurgers
, the "slope" forcareerChoice
kinda goes up.Ok, I think that's complicated enough. Plus I'm not sure if I'm really making any sense here.
One comment I'll make is that I think the line between idea and execution can be very blurry. Personally I think that the idea has to include more than just the product. You have to have answers to questions like "how are customers going to discover this" and "how is this going to make money". High level answers to those questions are part of the idea to me, whereas lower level implementation details are part of the execution. From what I can tell, many people don't see that stuff as part of the idea.