Consider
From what I understand, technological progress happens exponentially.
vs.
Technological progress happens exponentially.
The difference is the "from what I understand" part. Other examples of such qualifiers include:
- It seems to me
- My impression is that
- I could be wrong, but
- Perhaps
- Probably
Using such qualifiers may be annoying. It is probably easier and quicker to just skip them. It also might add "fluff" and distract from the main point.
On the other hand, I worry that omitting them would lead to overconfidence. If you say "X is true" enough times instead of "It seems to me that X is true; I'm pretty confident but not super confident", it seems likely that you'd develop a nontrivial overconfidence in X.
Of course, the answer to "Should we use qualifiers in speech?" is almost certainly, "It depends". But despite that, it still seems like it'd be pretty useful to figure out what the "default" or "your go-to" should be.
Personally I lean pretty strongly towards using them when doing intellectual things, like here on LessWrong. But in everyday life I lean towards avoiding them, because it goes against norms, is a little awkward, and doesn't have nearly as big a benefit as when you're doing intellectual things.
I don't have a full answer, but here's what seems important to consider - in my experience, the baseline for the level of confidence in speech that is associated with competence and authority is a lot lower in intellectual circles like LessWrong, compared to the general public.
This is because exposure to rationality and science usually impresses into someone that making mistakes is "fine" and an unavoidable component of learning, and that while science has made very impressive progress there is still a lot to learn and understand about the world. On the other hand, the real world and social opinion usually very closely associate mistakes with failure and the ensuing moral penalties and lowered status.
Based on that, if you rely a lot on qualifiers while speaking to someone who's not as exposed to or interested in intellectual thought, they may write you off as confused or unsure - they will expect "smarter" people to give them definite verdicts. So if you're trying to socially maneuver someone into agreeing with your reasoning based on competence, forgoing qualifiers is probably a good idea.
I feel pretty confident that he was referring to the information I was conveying. Ie. that it should be "yes" instead of "no". I think he was trying to protect me, because if I don't tell people what they want to hear I'll develop a bad reputation.
Thanks for explaining how you would rephrase it/go about it. That makes a lot of sense and I feel like something clicked for me after reading it.