Consider
From what I understand, technological progress happens exponentially.
vs.
Technological progress happens exponentially.
The difference is the "from what I understand" part. Other examples of such qualifiers include:
- It seems to me
- My impression is that
- I could be wrong, but
- Perhaps
- Probably
Using such qualifiers may be annoying. It is probably easier and quicker to just skip them. It also might add "fluff" and distract from the main point.
On the other hand, I worry that omitting them would lead to overconfidence. If you say "X is true" enough times instead of "It seems to me that X is true; I'm pretty confident but not super confident", it seems likely that you'd develop a nontrivial overconfidence in X.
Of course, the answer to "Should we use qualifiers in speech?" is almost certainly, "It depends". But despite that, it still seems like it'd be pretty useful to figure out what the "default" or "your go-to" should be.
Personally I lean pretty strongly towards using them when doing intellectual things, like here on LessWrong. But in everyday life I lean towards avoiding them, because it goes against norms, is a little awkward, and doesn't have nearly as big a benefit as when you're doing intellectual things.
Removing qualifiers from my speech and writing helps me think clearly because it forces me to make positive statements about reality. Compare the following three statements.
A statement without qualifiers is the most meaningful because it is the most narrow. (More precisely, it forces entropy out of a probability distribution.) Qualifiers like "I think" signal lack of confidence. Such signals accurately calibrate statements when you truly do lack confidence. Signaling lack of confidence when you are confident obfuscates communication.
In my real life experience, people who demand unnecessary qualifiers are dangerous to consort with. (By unnecessary qualifier, I mean redundant words like "It seems to me…" when you know something to be true. Qualifiers like "one of the ___s" are fine if you really mean "one of the ___s".)
If "x is true" then I will say "x is true". If "x is not true" then I will say "x is not true".
I just want to point out that "X is true" and "X is a fact" are themselves a type of qualifier, and it could be interesting to ask when/why a person says this rather than merely "X". Are these somehow better than other qualifiers? If so, why?
For example, many people are more inclined to talk about "facts" and "truth" when talking about contentious political issues, while rarely using those words at all when talking of practical matters like bi... (read more)