Consider
From what I understand, technological progress happens exponentially.
vs.
Technological progress happens exponentially.
The difference is the "from what I understand" part. Other examples of such qualifiers include:
- It seems to me
- My impression is that
- I could be wrong, but
- Perhaps
- Probably
Using such qualifiers may be annoying. It is probably easier and quicker to just skip them. It also might add "fluff" and distract from the main point.
On the other hand, I worry that omitting them would lead to overconfidence. If you say "X is true" enough times instead of "It seems to me that X is true; I'm pretty confident but not super confident", it seems likely that you'd develop a nontrivial overconfidence in X.
Of course, the answer to "Should we use qualifiers in speech?" is almost certainly, "It depends". But despite that, it still seems like it'd be pretty useful to figure out what the "default" or "your go-to" should be.
Personally I lean pretty strongly towards using them when doing intellectual things, like here on LessWrong. But in everyday life I lean towards avoiding them, because it goes against norms, is a little awkward, and doesn't have nearly as big a benefit as when you're doing intellectual things.
I use qualifiers rarely in writing, and only when I wish to emphasize my own lack of confidence or conviction. I think I am even less likely to use them in speech.
There are some situations where altering your language to drive down overconfidence (or the opposite) seems to be a good idea - namely ones where you don't want to trust your intuition or reasoning very much (or when you realize you are too epistemically humble). According to Sapir-Whorf, intentionally injecting or excluding qualifiers in a statement can change a speaker's/listener's/reader's perceived level of confidence in the statement, as you alluded to in your question.
Addendum:
Politicians (much like many smarter-than-average children) like to use qualifiers so they don't have to commit to anything, or so that two sides of a debate can each interpret their statement to map a candidate onto their side. Take this slightly exaggerated example where, I started with "X is happening" and inserted three qualifying fluffs ("as it has been presented" vs first-person observation, "seems to" vs definitely, "look like" vs some form of "to be"):
If you believe in X, the candidate confirmed that they also believe in X, so you can support them. If you believe in Not X, but you wanted to support the candidate anyway, this formulation allows you to tell yourself that they:
The third option in particular tends to be transparent mental gymnastics to anyone else but the believer. It's a way to resolve or bury cognitive dissonance created when someone supports a candidate they don't 100% agree with.