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Thomas comments on Open Thread, April 1-15, 2012 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Your best guess is all you have. More intelligent and knowledgeable you are, more likely it is, that your guess is correct. But you can't go "beyond" this.
Considering cryonics ... maybe some people don't want to wake up in a future where the Alcor's procedure is necessary. If you can't wake me up from ashes ... don't even bother!