= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Daniel_Burfoot comments on Self-Study Questions Thread - Less Wrong Discussion
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (66)
As a strategic note, I am increasingly skeptical of the idea of trying to learn a bunch of skills that you may or may not use, especially advanced math skills. The key problem with learning is that skill ability decays over time unless you invest a lot of time on maintenance. So if you invest X hours learning a skill, you will have an asset whose value decays over time, while if you spend the same amount of effort making money, you will have an asset that grows exponentially in value over time.
Real interest rates are negative, so currently, money doesn't grow in value over time. A better investment would probably be to learn skills that you do plan on using.
The expected real return on the stock market is positive. You shouldn't hold large cash balances.
The return that you expect might be positive but in general different people can have different beliefs about what they expect the SAP500 to do in the next ten years.
The expected return implicit in futures rates is positive. If you disagree you should short futures and earn a positive return that way.
No. Conservative investment strategies aren't about buying SAP500 and buying shorts on it.
They are about buying treasury bonds. Some rational players in the market do buy bonds. If you want at the expected return of the market you have to look at treasury rates given inflation adjustment.
Quick googling reveal 2.65% for treasury bonds. Official inflation rates are 1.5%.
That means expected return on your money is 1.15%. You could however say that the official inflation numbers are messaged and the market is generally too optimistic. The difference from 1.15% to negative expectations isn't that high.
If you think the market is off by 1.2% you don't gain a high return by betting on corresponding futures.