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Lumifer comments on Open Thread, May 19 - 25, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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For the simple reason that politics is not zero-sum, foreign policy included.
cooperation is not zero sum. Why does better forecasting lead to more cooperation?
I would guess that it does--but if somebody hasn't seriously addressed this then I don't think I'm doing foreign policy questions on GJP Season 4
Zero-sum means any actions of the participants do not change the total. Either up or down.
A nuclear exchange between US and Russia would not be zero-sum, to give an example. Better forecasting might reduce its chance by lessening the opportunities for misunderstanding, e.g. when one side mistakenly thinks the other side is bluffing.
As to more cooperation, better forecasting implies better understanding of the other side which implies less uncertainty about consequences which implies more trust which implies more cooperation.
How about the governments of the US and Russia correctly forecast that more hostility means more profits for their cronies, and increase military spending?
Yes, and..?
If you want something that comes with ironclad guarantees that it leads to only goodness and light, go talk to Jesus. That's his domain.
That would still not be zero-sum. Which direction you think it is depends on your views.