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army1987 comments on Open Thread, May 19 - 25, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Tetlock thinks improved political forecasting is good. I haven't read his whole book but maybe someone can help me cheat. Why is improved forecasting not zero sum? suppose the USA and Russia can both forecast better but have different interests. so what?
[Edit] my guess might be that on areas of common interest like economics, improved forecasting is good. But on foreign policy...?
International politics is zero-sum once you've already reached the Pareto frontier and can only move along it, but if forecasting is sufficiently bad you might not even be close to the Pareto frontier.
Right. A lot of politics is not zero-sum. Reduced uncertainty and better information may enable compromises that before had seemed too risky. Forecasting could help identify which compromises would work and which wouldn't. Etc.
thanks army and bramflakes for illustrating. My guess is to agree--but I still have doubts. Maybe they have nothing to do after all with "zero sum." I think I'm concerned that forecasting could be used by governments against citizens. Before participating again I may need to read something in more detail about why this is unlikely. and also why I shouldn't participate in SciCast instead!