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ike comments on Open thread, Dec. 22 - Dec. 28, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Hm. What I mean is that when I try to weigh up the evidence, it seems pretty balanced (perhaps slightly weighted toward genuine), so the prior will determine it. If the prior was 10%, I would conclude that it was probably real, versus if the prior was 1%, I would conclude it was fake.
If you want me to explain what I mean by prior ...
Before doing any investigating, what is the probability of something that I am likely to hear about that fits the intuitional category of "too good to be true" to be more-or-less true? (I'm assuming an implicit weighting for popularity, which seems fair. OTOH it might be hard to estimate popularity for different people.)
I think many people in this subthread are suggesting ways of interpreting the evidence that you may not have (or may have) thought of, or alternately, additional pieces of potential evidence that may not obviously be evidence. So it seems like the question you should really be asking is, "how do I assess this opportunity?" rather than "what should the prior be?"