[LINK] Amanda Knox exonerated

fortyeridania

Here are the New York Times, CNN, and NBC. Here is Wikipedia for background.

The case has made several appearances on LessWrong; examples include:

You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event (December 2009)
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour Beats a Year in the Courtroom (December 2009)
Amanda Knox: post mortem (October 2011)
Amanda Knox Guilty Again (January 2014)

Here are the New York Times, CNN, and NBC. Here is Wikipedia for background.

The case has made several appearances on LessWrong; examples include:

You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event (December 2009)
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour Beats a Year in the Courtroom (December 2009)
Amanda Knox: post mortem (October 2011)
Amanda Knox Guilty Again (January 2014)

Let's analyze the problem using Bayes Net terminology. Let A={suspect=Knox's demographic profile}, B={suspect lives with victim} and C={suspect guilty}. Then your claim is that the net is structured as A->B->C, or that the demographic evidence is conditionally independent of guilt given co-habitation.

No.

My claim is that the net is structured as A->C<-B; both A and B affect the likelihood of guilt, and in particular A substantially reduces the likelihood of guilt as James_Miller points out (Note that I'm not saying B is irrelevant, obviously this is wrong).

I agree.

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[LINK] Amanda Knox exonerated

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[LINK] Amanda Knox exonerated

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