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No, male-like murder levels would be higher than genderless murder levels. And, if I understand correctly, most of the excess male murder rate involves gang-related violence, which in this case was pretty clearly not involved.
Anyway, I agree that if you are doing pure Bayesian inference you have to condition on all kinds of available evidence, including gender, race, social class, nationality, etc. But we can't expect courts to consider this kind of evidence, for good reasons (avoid creating self-fulfilling prophecies and avoid incentivizing crime within certain demographics).
No, the male murder excess rate is not gang-related. Why would you think so?
Right. According to this huffpo post less than 10% of homicides are gang-related, which makes it impossible that gang violence could explain the 10:1 (male:female) homicide offending ratio.
I was thinking that most murders are gang-related and most gang members are male, but I see that this is disputed. Unfortunately, all the sources I can find seem to take a partisan position in the gun control debate, hence I don't know.
Bad prior. Gang violence is a major murder statistic, but it's pretty far from being "most". Quick googling says: "1 in 6 murders". The most common motive, at 50% is "Argument". So.. men are more likely to escalate those to homocide?
Makes sense.
...and what do you think that implies about whether female murder levels are lower as I claimed?
Yeah, no. Think about that a little bit. (Also, please note the irony of responding to criticism about not conditioning by claiming it would be neutralized by further conditioning.)
If the updates on different kinds of evidence would likely cancel each other, it is an argument for avoiding conditioning too hard or privileging one kind of evidence while doing informal reasoning.