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Dagon comments on [Link] Small-game fallacies: a Problem for Prediction Markets - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (12)
"The best way to predict the future is to invent it." -- Alan Kay (and/or others.)
Seems a pretty straightforward extension of Goodhart's Law. Every measure is an incentive, with all the alignment and agency problems that come along with it.
The Alan Kay quote reminds me of my thermo prof saying, "Engineers love to control a process. That way, we don't have to understand it." I've always loved that one, but Alan Kay says it better.