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DanielLC comments on Open thread, Oct. 12 - Oct. 18, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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But that's just the prior probability. I can still say that we have strong evidence that the probability of a given solar system having intelligent life is much, much lower than one in 150,000.
Or at least intelligent life that modifies its home system in a way that is visible from thousands of light years away.
I admit that a Dyson sphere seems like an arbitrary place to stop, but I think my basic argument stands either way. If any intelligent life was that common, some of it would spread.