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morganism comments on Open thread, Sep. 12 - Sep. 18, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion

1 Post author: MrMind 12 September 2016 06:49AM

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Comment author: morganism 16 September 2016 11:56:56PM 2 points [-]

KIC 8462852 models that fit Kepler observations quite well

"I have proposed a type of model that is mathematically simple and, with slight variations, is able to produce excellent fits for all the major brightness drops observed in Tabby's star. If this is the correct type of model — its goodness of fit is highly encouraging — the following hypotheses should be considered:

1) Tabby's star has one ore more partially constructed Niven Rings. All partial rings are likely in the same orbital plane and possibly the same orbit.

2) Tabby's star hosts a Dyson Swarm, and some objects in the swarm cluster alongside shared orbits, with an object distribution given by an approximation of a Monod equation. Perhaps the distribution is intentional in D800, and meant to be a beacon.

3) We might be looking at the birth of an accretion disk, or a partial accretion disk. Perhaps Tabby's star is being slowly swallowed by another star or a black hole. Perhaps there's a natural reason why disk material would approximate a Monod distribution, quite perfectly sometimes, and chaotically on different occasions."


Comment author: gjm 18 September 2016 09:45:35PM -1 points [-]

I thought Niven rings were known to be unstable.

Comment author: morganism 18 September 2016 11:35:01PM 0 points [-]

that's why niven had to add jets to the ring walls.

Comment author: morganism 23 December 2017 10:52:21PM 0 points [-]

"Destroyed Worlds" --Cause Star's Strange Dimming (VIDEO)

"A team of U.S. astronomers studying the star RZ Piscium has found evidence suggesting its strange, unpredictable dimming episodes may be caused by vast orbiting clouds of gas and dust, the remains of one or more destroyed planets."


Comment author: MrMind 26 September 2016 08:07:52AM 0 points [-]

Goodness of fit is good, but goodness of prediction is really better.
The fact that you need to add parameters after each drop is not encouraging, but obviously it might be better than any alternatives. Have you published the detail of those equations?

Comment author: morganism 17 September 2016 12:02:16AM *  -1 points [-]

prob not a biological entity...

"The thought of long-term galactic survival for humanity was comforting to some, and in any case it seemed inevitable, humanity’s fate or destiny.

there is no Planet B,Earth is our only home.

This conclusion, startling to some, obvious to others, has ramifications that are worth pondering. If it comes to be a generally agreed on view, it might change how we act as individuals and a civilization. These changes in behavior might turn out to be crucial for our descendants."

Kim Stanley Robinson on generation ships and hazards