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username2 comments on Open thread, Oct. 03 - Oct. 09, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion

4 Post author: MrMind 03 October 2016 06:59AM

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Comment author: username2 05 October 2016 06:16:23PM *  7 points [-]

The problem is that the statistics don't show the claimed bias. Normalized on a per-police-encounter basis, white cops (or cops-in-general) don't appear to shoot black suspects more often than they shoot white suspects. However, police interact with black people more frequently, so the absolute proportion of black shooting victims is elevated.

The fact that the incidence of police encounters with blacks is elevated would be the actual social problem worth addressing, but the reasons for the elevated incidence of police-black encounters do not make a nice soundbite.

None of this is important of course because, as is usual for politics, the whole mess degenerates into cheerleading for your team and condemning the other team, and sensitive analysis of the actual evidence would be giving aid and comfort to the hated enemy.

Comment author: Brillyant 05 October 2016 07:02:37PM -1 points [-]

The problem is that the statistics don't show the claimed bias. Normalized on a per-police-encounter basis, white cops (or cops-in-general) don't appear to shoot black suspects more often than they shoot white suspects. However, police interact with black people more frequently, so the absolute proportion of black shooting victims is elevated.

Can you provide any sources for this?

The fact that the incidence of police encounters with blacks is elevated would be the actual social problem worth addressing, but the reasons for the elevated incidence of police-black encounters do not make a nice soundbite.

Is the incidence of police encounters with blacks elevated?

What are the reasons?

Comment author: Lumifer 05 October 2016 08:15:57PM 3 points [-]

What are the reasons?

For example, there were 4,636 murders committed by white people and 5,620 murders committed by black people in 2015 (source). On the per-capita basis this makes the by-white murder rate to be about 2.2 per 100,000 and the by-black murder rate to be about 16.2 per 100,000.

Comment author: Brillyant 05 October 2016 08:24:15PM 0 points [-]

Why is this?

Comment author: Lumifer 05 October 2016 09:00:47PM 3 points [-]

You asked why is "the incidence of police encounters with blacks elevated". This is a direct answer.

If you want to know the reasons for different crime rates, this is going to get long and complicated.

Comment author: Brillyant 05 October 2016 09:09:47PM 0 points [-]

Can/will you TL;DR your view?

Comment author: Lumifer 06 October 2016 02:52:56PM 3 points [-]

As with any complex phenomenon in a complex system, there is going to be a laundry list of contributing factors, none of which is the cause (in the sense that fixing just that cause will fix the entire problem). We can start with

  • Genetic factors (such as lower IQ)
  • Historical factors, which in turn flow into
  • Cultural factors (such as distrust of the government / law enforcement) and
  • Economic factors (from being poor to having a major presence in the drug trade)

The opinions about the relative weights of these factors are going to differ and in the current political climate I don't think a reasonable open discussion is possible.

Comment author: Brillyant 06 October 2016 04:36:12PM *  0 points [-]

Genetic factors (such as lower IQ)

What is the best source for this in your view?

Historical factors, Cultural factors, Economic factors

Is it your view that past slavery in America still has a large impact on African Americans in the present day U.S.?

It seems obvious to me that it does, and that the effects are wide and deep, as slavery (and Jim Crow) is relatively recent history—We're only a handful of generations from a time where a race of people was enslaved and systemically kept from accumulating wealth and education.

...I don't think a reasonable open discussion is possible.

Meh. Maybe. I'd like to believe I'm a reasonable guy. My views on these issues are largely ignorant and I'm open to learning.

Comment author: Lumifer 06 October 2016 05:07:42PM *  4 points [-]

What is the best source for this in your view?

The raw data is plentiful -- look at any standardized test scores (e.g. SAT) by race. For a full-blown argument in favor see e.g. this (I can't check the link at the moment, it might be that you need to go to the Wayback Machine to access it). For a more, um, mainstream discussion see Charles Murray's The Bell Curve. Wikipedia has more links you could pursue.

Is it your view that past slavery in America still has a large impact on African Americans in the present day U.S.?

My view is that history is important and that outcomes are path-dependent. Slavery and segregation are crucial parts of the history of American blacks.

open to learning

Your social circles might have a strong reaction to you coming to anything other than the approved conclusions...

Comment author: ChristianKl 06 October 2016 08:32:52PM 0 points [-]

Is it your view that past slavery in America still has a large impact on African Americans in the present day U.S.?

What do you mean with that question? How do you compare the present state of the US with a counterfactual US where African Americans weren't in slavery?

Comment author: Brillyant 06 October 2016 09:56:59PM *  -1 points [-]

I think it's pretty easy to hypothesize about the possible effects of slavery vs. no slavery.

In the context of this thread, it was mentioned that the murder rate was much higher for blacks versus whites. If there are socioeconomic reasons for this, then I'm curious about slavery's contribution to those factors.

Politically, I'm generally empathetic toward ideas like affirmative action in the U.S. on the basis of race because there has been serious discrimination in the U.S. on the basis of race in the past. It makes practical sense to posit it created a "headstart" for races who were not... enslaved... and otherwise discriminated against and it makes ethical sense to employ measures to even the score.

I'm open to the idea ideas like AA may not actually practically work and could be persuaded as such by the evidence.

Comment author: ChristianKl 05 October 2016 09:46:15PM 0 points [-]

I would also be interested in your view.

Comment author: username2 05 October 2016 07:30:28PM 0 points [-]

Source: http://www.nber.org/papers/w22399

What are the reasons? Well, beginning with the discovery of the North American continent 1492 ...